Importance of futures studies in health: A Narrative Review
,
Abstract
The future is something that people can design and shape with their purposeful actions, and it is the only opportunity we have to pursue our ideals, dreams, goals, strategies, and so on. The pulsating changes are the heart of the future, and our surrounding world is also a dynamic, uncontrollable world with extensive communications and full of uncertainty. The crises around us today are the result of not paying attention to them and not considering the speed of these changes. It should be noted that awareness of future changes requires future studies to reduce threats and increase opportunities that enable us to perform appropriately at future events. Considering the extensive history of changes in the healthcare system, it can be expected that we will see more changes in the future, which requires an understanding of future situations and alignment with future changes in healthcare.
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21. Vella S, Mattioli B, Quaranta MG. FRESHER Scenarios Storylines and quantitative simulation results. 2017.
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37. Schiavone F, Ferretti M. The FutureS of healthcare. Futures. 2021;134:102849.
38. Walia N. Can 3D Virtual Worlds Address Healthcare Issues? Development, Delivery, Efficacy and Motivations to Use. 2009.
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51. Organization WH. WHO package of essential noncommunicable (PEN) disease interventions for primary health care. 2020.
52. Wepner B, Giesecke S. Drivers, trends and scenarios for the future of health in Europe. Impressions from the FRESHER project. European journal of futures research. 2018;6:1-10.
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59. Braun A, Rijkers-Defrasne S, Zweck A, Butter M, Dumay A, Leis M. Special Issue on Health Care. Healthy Ageing and the Future of Public Healthcare Systems. European Comission Directorate-General for Research: Brussels, Belgium; 2009.
60. Balbin Vila J. Sustainable development in Änggärdet: A Backcasting Approach for what a Sustainable Community Farm Might Comprise in the Future. 2020.
61. Fauci AS, Touchette NA, Folkers GK. Emerging infectious diseases: a 10-year perspective from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. International Journal of Risk & Safety in Medicine. 2005;17(3-4):157-67.
62. McArthur DB. Emerging infectious diseases. Nursing Clinics. 2019;54(2):297-311.
63. Rantsios A. Zoonoses. Encyclopedia of Food and Health. 2016:645.
64. Chattu VK, Yaya S. Emerging infectious diseases and outbreaks: implications for women’s reproductive health and rights in resource-poor settings. Springer; 2020. p. 1-5.
65. زاذده ص. بیماریهای عفونی نوپدید. نشريه فرهنگ و ارتقاء سلامت. 2020;4(1):9-13.
66. Lee N, Hui D, Wu A, Chan P, Cameron P, Joynt GM, et al. A major outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong. New England Journal of Medicine. 2003;348(20):1986-94.
67. Jones KE, Patel NG, Levy MA, Storeygard A, Balk D, Gittleman JL, et al. Global trends in emerging infectious diseases. Nature. 2008;451(7181):990-3.
68. Peykari N, Hashemi H, Dinarvand R, Haji-Aghajani M, Malekzadeh R, Sadrolsadat A, et al. National action plan for non-communicable diseases prevention and control in Iran; a response to emerging epidemic. Journal of Diabetes & Metabolic Disorders. 2017;16:1-7.
2. Sardar Z. The Namesake: Futures; futures studies; futurology; futuristic; foresight—What's in a name? Futures. 2010;42(3):177-84.
3. TAVALLAEI R. Futures study of Iran’s cyberspace services trends in the technological process of globalization, using delphi method. 2015.
4. Chait L. Leading Strategic Change in an Era of Healthcare Transformation2016.
5. Schorren D, Dommerholt E. De burger geeft meerwaarde aan business: De Bottum-Up Business Opportunities benadering: een praktijkvoorbeeld van'participatieve backcasting'. 2020.
6. Gard M, Wright J. Managing uncertainty: Obesity discourses and physical education in a risk society. Studies in philosophy and education. 2001;20(6):535-49.
7. Miola A. Backcasting approach for sustainable mobility. European Union: The Institute for
Environment and Sustainability, 2008 JRC JRC45824.
8. Pouragha B, Baghian N, Najafi M. Futures study in health: A review study. Evidence Based Health Policy, Management and Economics. 2018.
9. Inayatullah S. Futures Studies. Theories and Methods. There's a Future Visions for a Better World. 2013:36-66.
10. Haghdoost A, Emami M, Esmaili M, Soberinia A, Nezhad Ghaderi M, Mehrolhassani M. Survey the status and causes of alcohol consumption: A case study of the epidemic alcohol poisoning in Rafsanjan in 2013. Journal of Rafsanjan University of Medical Sciences. 2015;13(10):991-1006.
11. Miles I. The development of technology foresight: A review. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2010;77(9):1448-56.
12. Coates JF. The future of foresight—A US perspective. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2010;77(9):1428-37.
13. Azimi MH, Fadaie G. The Appropriate approach to foresight for information technology in Knowledge and Information Science. Journal of Studies in Library and Information Science. 2017;8(18):1-18.
14. Pau SST, Hall A. New spaces for healthcare futures studies: Connecting existing theory to deeper participatory practice. Futures. 2021;126:102689.
15. Hancock T, Bezold C, editors. Possible futures, preferable futures. The Healthcare Forum Journal; 1994.
16. . !!! INVALID CITATION !!! (14, 16, 17).
17. Garrett MJ. Health futures: a handbook for health professionals: World Health Organization; 1999.
18. Taket A. Health Futures in support of health for all: World Health Organization; 1993.
19. Overview of foresight related activities - The PHIRI project. Deliverable 9.1, 2021-07-28.
20. Butland B, Jebb S, Kopelman P, McPherson K, Thomas S, Mardell J, et al. Tackling obesities: future choices-project report: Citeseer; 2007.
21. Vella S, Mattioli B, Quaranta MG. FRESHER Scenarios Storylines and quantitative simulation results. 2017.
22. Lashkari E, Khalaj M. Reading of Developments in Comprehensive Urban Plans-Review of the Iranian Experience (Limitations and problems from Master Plan to Strategic-Structural Plan). Creative City Design. 2019;2(2):15-23.
23. Jemala M. Evolution of foresight in the global historical context. foresight. 2010;12(4):65-81.
24. Donev DM. Health insurance system in the Republic of Macedonia. Croatian Medical Journal. 1999;40(2).
25. Moghadasi H, Hosseini A, Asadi F, Ismaili M. The problems of Iran health insurance system and the necessity of reform approach. Health Manag. 2011;14:71-9.
26. Van de Ven WP, Schut FT. Universal mandatory health insurance in the Netherlands: a model for the United States? Health affairs. 2008;27(3):771-81.
27. Heydari M, Seyedin H, Jafari M, Dehnavieh R. Stakeholder analysis of Iran's health insurance system. Journal of Education and Health Promotion. 2018;7.
28. Resolution GA. Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. UN Doc A/RES/70/1 (September 25, 2015). 2015.
29. Walt G, Shiffman J, Schneider H, Murray SF, Brugha R, Gilson L. ‘Doing’health policy analysis: methodological and conceptual reflections and challenges. Health policy and planning. 2008;23(5):308-17.
30. Alemany R, Ayuso M, Guillén M. Impact of road traffic injuries on disability rates and long-term care costs in Spain. Accident Analysis & Prevention. 2013;60:95-102.
31. Peden M, Scurfield R, Sleet D, Mohan D, Hyder AA, Jarawan E, et al. World report on road traffic injury prevention. World Health Organization Geneva; 2004.
32. Ruikar M. National statistics of road traffic accidents in India. Journal of Orthopedics, Traumatology and Rehabilitation. 2013;6(1):1.
33. . !!! INVALID CITATION !!! (34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41).
34. Gómez-Restrepo C, Naranjo-Lujan S, Rondón M, Acosta A, Maldonado P, Villegas CA, et al. Latin American Clinical Epidemiology Network Series–Paper 6: The influence of alcohol in traffic accidents and health care costs of it in Bogotá-Colombia. Journal of clinical epidemiology. 2017;86:106-10.
35. Lapão LV. The future impact of healthcare services digitalization on health workforce: the increasing role of medical informatics. Exploring complexity in health: An interdisciplinary systems approach. 2016:675-9.
36. Aghamohamadi S, Jahangiri K, Hajinabi K, Masoudi Asl I, Dehnavieh R. Foresight for inpatient beds in hospitals of Iran: Vision 2035. Journal of Health Administration. 2018;21(71):23-36.
37. Schiavone F, Ferretti M. The FutureS of healthcare. Futures. 2021;134:102849.
38. Walia N. Can 3D Virtual Worlds Address Healthcare Issues? Development, Delivery, Efficacy and Motivations to Use. 2009.
39. Downes MJ, Mervin MC, Byrnes JM, Scuffham PA. Telemedicine for general practice: a systematic review protocol. Systematic reviews. 2015;4(1):1-4.
40. Tuckson RV, Edmunds M, Hodgkins ML. Telehealth. New England Journal of Medicine. 2017;377(16):1585-92.
41. Rachas A, Farmer AJ, Inzitari M, Shepperd S. Interactive telemedicine: effects on professional practice and health care outcomes. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. 2015(9).
42. Garavand A, Aslani N. Metaverse phenomenon and its impact on health: A scoping review. Informatics in Medicine Unlocked. 2022:101029.
43. Polisena J, Tran K, Cimon K, Hutton B, McGill S, Palmer K, et al. Home telehealth for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Journal of telemedicine and telecare. 2010;16(3):120-7.
44. Organization WH. mHealth: new horizons for health through mobile technologies. mHealth: new horizons for health through mobile technologies. 2011.
45. Jakob L, Steeb T, Fiocco Z, Pumnea T, Jakob SN, Wessely A, et al. Patient perception of Mobile phone apps for the care and prevention of sexually transmitted diseases: cross-sectional study. JMIR mHealth and uHealth. 2020;8(11):e16517.
46. . !!! INVALID CITATION !!! (55, 56, 57).
47. Lupton D. M-health and health promotion: The digital cyborg and surveillance society. Social Theory & Health. 2012;10:229-44.
48. Sediqi MS, Borumand Kakhki A, Asghari S, Tofighi S. A review on methods and applications of foresight in health policy: international practices and national considerations. Rahyaft. 2021;31(81):109-33.
49. Kim J. Advertising in the metaverse: Research agenda. Journal of Interactive Advertising. 2021;21(3):141-4.
50. Sun M, Xie L, Liu Y, Li K, Jiang B, Lu Y, et al. The metaverse in current digital medicine. Clinical eHealth. 2022.
51. Organization WH. WHO package of essential noncommunicable (PEN) disease interventions for primary health care. 2020.
52. Wepner B, Giesecke S. Drivers, trends and scenarios for the future of health in Europe. Impressions from the FRESHER project. European journal of futures research. 2018;6:1-10.
53. Goldstein DA, Clark J, Tu Y, Zhang J, Fang F, Goldstein R, et al. A global comparison of the cost of patented cancer drugs in relation to global differences in wealth. Oncotarget. 2017;8(42):71548.
54. . !!! INVALID CITATION !!! (63, 64, 65).
55. Moye-Holz D, Vogler S. Comparison of prices and affordability of cancer medicines in 16 countries in Europe and Latin America. Applied Health Economics and Health Policy. 2022:1-11.
56. Chen S, Cao Z, Prettner K, Kuhn M, Yang J, Jiao L, et al. Estimates and projections of the global economic cost of 29 cancers in 204 countries and territories from 2020 to 2050. JAMA oncology. 2023;9(4):465-72.
57. . !!! INVALID CITATION !!! (70, 71, 72).
58. Haghdoost A, Pourhosseini SS, Emami M, Dehnavieh R, Barfeh T, Mehrolhassani MH. Foresight in health sciences using CLA method. Medical journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran. 2017;31:84.
59. Braun A, Rijkers-Defrasne S, Zweck A, Butter M, Dumay A, Leis M. Special Issue on Health Care. Healthy Ageing and the Future of Public Healthcare Systems. European Comission Directorate-General for Research: Brussels, Belgium; 2009.
60. Balbin Vila J. Sustainable development in Änggärdet: A Backcasting Approach for what a Sustainable Community Farm Might Comprise in the Future. 2020.
61. Fauci AS, Touchette NA, Folkers GK. Emerging infectious diseases: a 10-year perspective from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. International Journal of Risk & Safety in Medicine. 2005;17(3-4):157-67.
62. McArthur DB. Emerging infectious diseases. Nursing Clinics. 2019;54(2):297-311.
63. Rantsios A. Zoonoses. Encyclopedia of Food and Health. 2016:645.
64. Chattu VK, Yaya S. Emerging infectious diseases and outbreaks: implications for women’s reproductive health and rights in resource-poor settings. Springer; 2020. p. 1-5.
65. زاذده ص. بیماریهای عفونی نوپدید. نشريه فرهنگ و ارتقاء سلامت. 2020;4(1):9-13.
66. Lee N, Hui D, Wu A, Chan P, Cameron P, Joynt GM, et al. A major outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong. New England Journal of Medicine. 2003;348(20):1986-94.
67. Jones KE, Patel NG, Levy MA, Storeygard A, Balk D, Gittleman JL, et al. Global trends in emerging infectious diseases. Nature. 2008;451(7181):990-3.
68. Peykari N, Hashemi H, Dinarvand R, Haji-Aghajani M, Malekzadeh R, Sadrolsadat A, et al. National action plan for non-communicable diseases prevention and control in Iran; a response to emerging epidemic. Journal of Diabetes & Metabolic Disorders. 2017;16:1-7.
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How to Cite
1.
Heydarifard Z, Maleki M, Pourasghari H. Importance of futures studies in health: A Narrative Review. Health Tech Ass Act. 2025;.
