Principle Concepts in Futures Studies: A Narrative Review
,
Abstract
Context: Our world is characterized by a dynamic landscape of variations, complexities, uncertainties, and ambiguities (VUCA). These elements manifest in various domains, including politics, economics, communication, information, science, and research, all of which significantly impact our lives. It is crucial for policymakers and managers to adopt a forward-thinking approach to comprehend these VUCA elements and their implications for the future. The future will undoubtedly differ from the present and the past. However, humans possess an inherent desire to understand and anticipate the future, particularly in the face of uncertainty. Therefore, exploring and understanding the future is not just a curiosity, but a necessity. Futures Studies can serve as a valuable tool in this context, enabling us to efficiently leverage opportunities and resources to navigate the chaotic environment. Review studies play a pivotal role in this process by reviewing existing work and synthesizing knowledge in a specific field. This study aims to collate findings related to the key concepts of Futures Research, thereby contributing to our collective understanding and preparation for the future.
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2. FatehRad M, Jalilvand R, Mowlaei M, Samiie S, Nasrolahi Vasati L. [Methodological Coordinates of Transdisciplinary Futures Studies as an Integrated Meta-Paradigm]. Interdisciplinary Studies in the Humanities. 2014;6(1):135-61. Persian. https://doi.org/10.7508/isih.2014.21.007.
3. Arab Bafrani M, Eivazi MR. A Comparative Study of the Methodological Typology of Futures Study. Futures Studies of the Islamic Revolution. 2021;2(1):7-36.
4. Wright G, Wigmore I. VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity). WhatIs. com. 2022. Available from: https://www.techtarget.com/whatis/definition/VUCA-volatility-uncertaintycomplexity-and-ambiguity.
5. Arab-Zozani M, Ameri H, Heidarifard Z, Bagheri H. [An Introduction to Policy Delphi; A tool for discovering the opposing views on health policy issues]. Quarterly J Management Strategies Health Syst. 2019;4(3):255-64. Persian. https://doi.org/10.18502/mshsj. v4i3.2058.
6. Skulmoski GJ, Hartman FT, Krahn J. The Delphi Method for Graduate Research. J Inform Technol Educ: Res. 2007;6:001-21. https://doi.org/10.28945/199.
7. Bell W. Foundations of Futures Studies: History, purposes, and knowledge. Piscataway, New Jersey: Transaction Publishers; 1996.
8. Kristóf T, Nováky E. The Story of Futures Studies: An Interdisciplinary Field Rooted in Social Sciences. Soc Sci. 2023;12(3):192. [PubMed ID:doi:10.3390/socsci12030192].
9. Sharifi T, Tatari M, Sedaghat F, Kalhor R, Mohammadi A. [Exploring the Relationship between the Students’ Futuristic Skill Competence and the Quality of Students’ Learning Experiences]. Iran J Med Educ. 2019;19(0):483-93. Persian.
10. Motti VV. Futures Studies. In: Glăveanu VP, editor. The Palgrave Encyclopedia of the Possible. Cham: Springer International Publishing; 2022. p. 609-12.
11. Inayatullah S. Futures Studies. Theories and Methods. 2013. [Updated:01/01]. 36-66]. Available from: https://www.researchgate. net/publication/281595208_Futures_Studies_Theories_and_
Methods.
12. Haghdoost AA, Emami M, Esmaili M, Soberinia A, Nezhad Ghaderi M, Mehrolhassani MH. [Survey the Status and Causes of Alcohol Consumption: A Case Study of the Epidemic Alcohol Poisoning
in Rafsanjan in 2013]. J Rafsanjan Univ Med Sci. 2015;13(10):991-1006. Persian.
13. Tirgir H, Nikkhah M, Saeidian N. [Comparative Study and Benchmarking of the Selection of Future Principals for Secondary Schools]. J Iran Futures Stud. 2022;7(2):103-32.
14. Masini E. Rethinking futures studies. Futures. 2006;38:1158-68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2006.02.004.
15. Greenhalgh T, Thorne S, Malterud K. Time to challenge the spurious hierarchy of systematic over narrative reviews? Eur J Clin Invest. 2018;48(6):e12931. [PubMed ID:29578574]. [PubMed Central ID:PMC6001568]. https://doi.org/10.1111/eci.12931.
16. Demiris G, Oliver DP, Washington KT. Chapter 2 - The Foundations of Behavioral Intervention Research in Hospice and Palliative Care. In: Demiris G, Oliver DP, Washington KT, editors. Behavioral Intervention Research in Hospice and Palliative Care. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Academic Press; 2019. p. 17-25.
17. Cooper C, Dawson S, Varley-Campbell J, Cockcroft E, Peters J, Hendon J, et al. Abstracts of the 25th Cochrane Colloquium. 2018. Available from: https://www.cochranelibrary.com/documents/20182/64256496/Abstracts+of+the+25th+Cochrane+Coll
oquium+update+3/7e105881-88b2-2de8-6ae0-7cb71499b44d.
18. Baker JD. The Purpose, Process, and Methods of Writing a Literature Review. AORN J. 2016;103(3):265-9. [PubMed ID:26924364]. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aorn.2016.01.016.
19. Shostak AB, Bell W. Foundations of Futures Studies, Vol. 1: History, Purposes, and Knowledge. Contemporary Sociol. 1998;27(4). https://doi.org/10.2307/2655498.
20. Sayah Mofazali A, Asadi A. [A review of theoretical foundation and key concepts of futures studies regards to development of implementation framework of Futures Studies]. Future Stud Management. 2015;26(102):15-26. Persian.
21. Kuosa T. Towards the Dynamic Paradigm of Futures Research: How to Grasp a Complex Futures Problem with Multiple Phases and Multiple methods. 2009. [Updated:01/01]. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228727621_Towards_the_Dynamic_Paradigm_of_Futures_Research_How_to_
Grasp_a_Complex_Futures_Problem_with_Multiple_Phases_and_Multiple_methods.
22. Cuhls K. From forecasting to foresight processes—new participative foresight activities in Germany. J Forecasting. 2003;22(2-3):93-111. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.848.
23. Tariq S, Woodman J. Using mixed methods in health research. JRSM Short Rep. 2013;4(6):2042533313479197. [PubMed ID:23885291]. [PubMed Central ID:PMC3697857]. https://doi.org/10.1177/2042533313479197.
24. Popper R. Foresight Methodology. In: Georghiou L, editor. The Handbook of Technology Foresight. London, England: Edward Elgar; 2008. p. 44-88.
25. Gordon TJ, Glenn JC. Integration, comparisons, and frontiers of futures research methods. In: Gordon TJ, Glenn JC, editors. EU-US Seminar: New Technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods. 2004.
26. Georghiou L. The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice. London, England: Edward Elgar; 2009.
27. Bell W. “What do we mean by futures studies?”. In: Slaughter R, editor. The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies. Washington, DC, USA: Washington, DC, USA; 1996. p. 3-25.
28. Tavallaei R. [Futures study of Iran’s cyberspace services trends in the technological process of globalization, using delphi method]. Globalization Strategic Studies Quarterly. 2015;17. Persian.
29. Voros J. A generic foresight process framework. Foresight. 2003;5(3):10-21. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680310698379.
30. Dator J. What Futures Studies Is, and Is Not. In: Dator J, editor. Jim Dator: A Noticer in Time: Selected work, 1967-2018. Cham: SpringerInternational Publishing; 2019. p. 3-5.
31. Niiniluoto I. Futures studies: science or art? Futures. 2001;33(5):371-7. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0016-3287(00)00080 x.
32. Eivazi MR, Pedram A. [Purposes and Assumptions of Islamic Futures Studies]. Journal of Improvement Management. 2014;8(1):27-48. Persian.
33. Dator JIM. Introduction: The future lies behind! Thirty years of teaching futures studies. American Behavioral Scientist. 1998;42(3):298-319. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764298042003002.
34. Cork S, Alexandra C, Alvarez-Romero JG, Bennett EM, BerbésBlázquez M, Bohensky E, et al. Exploring Alternative Futures in the Anthropocene. Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 2023;48(1):25-54. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-112321-095011.
35. van Dorsser C, Walker WE, Taneja P, Marchau VAWJ. Improving the link between the futures field and policymaking. Futures. 2018;104:75-84. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.05.004.
36. Inayatullah S. Questioning the future: Methods and tools for organizational and societal transformation. 2005. Available from: https://www.metafuture.org/library1/FuturesStudies/The-Studyof-the-Future-questioning_the_future_ch_1-2007.pdf.
37. Bell W. Foundations of Futures Studies, Volume 1: Human Science for a New Era. London, England: Routledge; 2009.
38. Hajiani E. [The Criteria of Methodological Evaluation Of Future Studies Techniques]. Rahbord J. 2011;20(59). Persian.
39. Lempert R, Bankes S, Popper S. Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis. Santa Monica, CA: RAND; 2003.
40. Parson EA, Burkett V, Fisher-Vanden K, Keith D, Mearns L, Pitcher H, et al. Global-change scenarios: their development and use. Washington, D.C, U.S; 2007 Contract No.: Document Number|.
41. Hosseini M, Talebpur J, Bakeri A. [Model in the development of managers ‘ competence with a futuristic approach in educational organizations]. New Dev Psychol Educ Sci Educ. 2019;15(2):1-16. Persian.
42. Cuhls K. Foresight with Delphi Surveys in Japan. Technol
Analysis Strategic Management. 2001;13(4):555-69. https://doi.org/10.1080/09537320127287.
43. Dator J. Futures studies as applied knowledge. In: Slaughter RA, editor. New Thinking for a New Millennium. Washington, DC, USA: Association of Professional Futurists; 2002. p. 119-29.
44. Kousari S, Sadat Rahmati F. [Future-Oriented Researches and Its Roles in STI Policy Making]. J Sci Technol Policy. 2019;12(2):103-18. Persian.
45. Inayatullah S. The Futures Triangle: Origins and Iterations. World Futures Rev. 2023;15(2-4):112-21. https://doi.org/10.1177/19467567231203162.
46. Abdullah NA. The Use and Usefulness of The Futures Triangle. World Futures Rev. 2023;15(2-4):133-45. https://doi.org/10.1177/19467567231203167.
47. Cruz S, Moura NA, Lim JM, Bulatao MNA, Aguirre GA, Dela Paz J. From Insight to Foresight: The Transformative Potential of the Futures Triangle. World Futures Rev. 2023;15(2-4):156-69. https://doi.org/10.1177/19467567231215126.
48. Inayatullah S. Six pillars: futures thinking for transforming. Foresight. 2008;10(1):4-21. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680810855991.
49. Fergnani A. Futures Triangle 2.0: integrating the Futures Triangle with Scenario Planning. Foresight. 2020;22(2):178-88.
50. Hyman MR, Kostyk A. Guest editorial: A prospectus on marketing futurology. Europ J Marketing. 2019;53(8):1485-503.
51. Slaughter RA. The knowledge base of futures studies as an evolving process. Futures. 1996;28(9):799-812. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0016-3287(96)00043-2.
52. Wendell B. Foundations of futures studies: History, purposes, and knowledge. Piscataway, New Jersey: Transaction Publishers; 2003.
53. Slaughter R, Inayatullah S, Ramos J. The knowledge base of futures studies: Professional edition. Foresight Int. 2005;1.
54. Miles ID, Keenan MP. Practical guide to regional foresight in the United Kingdom. Brussels, Belgium: European Commission; 2002.
55. Ghorrabi AT, Heydari M, Choobdarnezhad M, Dahim A, Heydarifard Z. Evaluation of the Overall Quality of the Health Technology Assessment Educational Program from the Perspectives of University Professors and Learners in Iran. Health Technol Assessment Action. 2023;7(1). https://doi.org/10.18502/htaa.v7i1.13301.
56. Slaughter RA. A new framework for environmental scanning. Foresight. 1999;1(5):441-51. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636689910802331.
57. Mahdi R. [Futurology in Higher Education: Strategies and Consequences of the Compatible University with Environment and Society (in Persian)]. Management Dev Process Quarterly.
2015;28(1):31-54. Persian.
58. Martin BR. The origins of the concept of ‘foresight’ in science and technology: An insider’s perspective. Technol Forecasting Soc Change. 2010;77(9):1438-47. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.009.
59. Miles I, Keenan M. Practical Guide to Regional Foresight in the UK. luxembourg: European Communities; 2003.
60. Garvin DA, Levesque LC. Note on scenario planning. China Harvard Business Review Press (China Case Studies); 2005.
61. Ravetz J, Popper R, Miles I. Applications of Wild Cards and Weak Signals to the Grand Challenges & Thematic Priorities of the European Research Area (ERA Toolkit). Manchester, United Kingdom: Manchester Institute of Innovat ion Research, The University of Manchester; 2011.
62. Mehrabanfar E. Wild Cards Applications in Futures Studies. Int J Mod Management Foresight. 2014;1:255-63.
63. Glaros A, Marquis S, Major C, Quarshie P, Ashton L, Green AG, et al. Horizon scanning and review of the impact of five food and food production models for the global food system in 2050. Trends Food Sci Technol. 2022;119:550-64. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tifs.2021.11.013.
64. Chermack TJ. Scenario Planning in Organizations: How to Create, Use, and Assess Scenarios. Oakland, United States: Berrett-Koehler Publishers; 2011.
65. Kahn H, Wiener AJ. The next thirty-three years: A framework for speculation. Cambridgeshire, England: Daedalus; 1967.
66. Godet M. How to be rigorous with scenario planning. Foresight. 2000;2(1):5-9. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680010802438.
67. Hiltunen E. Scenarios: process and outcome. J Futures Stud. 2009;13(3):151-2.
68. Paya A, Baradaran Shoraka H-R. Futures Studies in Iran: Learning through trial and error. Futures. 2010;42(5):484-95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.033.
2. FatehRad M, Jalilvand R, Mowlaei M, Samiie S, Nasrolahi Vasati L. [Methodological Coordinates of Transdisciplinary Futures Studies as an Integrated Meta-Paradigm]. Interdisciplinary Studies in the Humanities. 2014;6(1):135-61. Persian. https://doi.org/10.7508/isih.2014.21.007.
3. Arab Bafrani M, Eivazi MR. A Comparative Study of the Methodological Typology of Futures Study. Futures Studies of the Islamic Revolution. 2021;2(1):7-36.
4. Wright G, Wigmore I. VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity). WhatIs. com. 2022. Available from: https://www.techtarget.com/whatis/definition/VUCA-volatility-uncertaintycomplexity-and-ambiguity.
5. Arab-Zozani M, Ameri H, Heidarifard Z, Bagheri H. [An Introduction to Policy Delphi; A tool for discovering the opposing views on health policy issues]. Quarterly J Management Strategies Health Syst. 2019;4(3):255-64. Persian. https://doi.org/10.18502/mshsj. v4i3.2058.
6. Skulmoski GJ, Hartman FT, Krahn J. The Delphi Method for Graduate Research. J Inform Technol Educ: Res. 2007;6:001-21. https://doi.org/10.28945/199.
7. Bell W. Foundations of Futures Studies: History, purposes, and knowledge. Piscataway, New Jersey: Transaction Publishers; 1996.
8. Kristóf T, Nováky E. The Story of Futures Studies: An Interdisciplinary Field Rooted in Social Sciences. Soc Sci. 2023;12(3):192. [PubMed ID:doi:10.3390/socsci12030192].
9. Sharifi T, Tatari M, Sedaghat F, Kalhor R, Mohammadi A. [Exploring the Relationship between the Students’ Futuristic Skill Competence and the Quality of Students’ Learning Experiences]. Iran J Med Educ. 2019;19(0):483-93. Persian.
10. Motti VV. Futures Studies. In: Glăveanu VP, editor. The Palgrave Encyclopedia of the Possible. Cham: Springer International Publishing; 2022. p. 609-12.
11. Inayatullah S. Futures Studies. Theories and Methods. 2013. [Updated:01/01]. 36-66]. Available from: https://www.researchgate. net/publication/281595208_Futures_Studies_Theories_and_
Methods.
12. Haghdoost AA, Emami M, Esmaili M, Soberinia A, Nezhad Ghaderi M, Mehrolhassani MH. [Survey the Status and Causes of Alcohol Consumption: A Case Study of the Epidemic Alcohol Poisoning
in Rafsanjan in 2013]. J Rafsanjan Univ Med Sci. 2015;13(10):991-1006. Persian.
13. Tirgir H, Nikkhah M, Saeidian N. [Comparative Study and Benchmarking of the Selection of Future Principals for Secondary Schools]. J Iran Futures Stud. 2022;7(2):103-32.
14. Masini E. Rethinking futures studies. Futures. 2006;38:1158-68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2006.02.004.
15. Greenhalgh T, Thorne S, Malterud K. Time to challenge the spurious hierarchy of systematic over narrative reviews? Eur J Clin Invest. 2018;48(6):e12931. [PubMed ID:29578574]. [PubMed Central ID:PMC6001568]. https://doi.org/10.1111/eci.12931.
16. Demiris G, Oliver DP, Washington KT. Chapter 2 - The Foundations of Behavioral Intervention Research in Hospice and Palliative Care. In: Demiris G, Oliver DP, Washington KT, editors. Behavioral Intervention Research in Hospice and Palliative Care. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Academic Press; 2019. p. 17-25.
17. Cooper C, Dawson S, Varley-Campbell J, Cockcroft E, Peters J, Hendon J, et al. Abstracts of the 25th Cochrane Colloquium. 2018. Available from: https://www.cochranelibrary.com/documents/20182/64256496/Abstracts+of+the+25th+Cochrane+Coll
oquium+update+3/7e105881-88b2-2de8-6ae0-7cb71499b44d.
18. Baker JD. The Purpose, Process, and Methods of Writing a Literature Review. AORN J. 2016;103(3):265-9. [PubMed ID:26924364]. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aorn.2016.01.016.
19. Shostak AB, Bell W. Foundations of Futures Studies, Vol. 1: History, Purposes, and Knowledge. Contemporary Sociol. 1998;27(4). https://doi.org/10.2307/2655498.
20. Sayah Mofazali A, Asadi A. [A review of theoretical foundation and key concepts of futures studies regards to development of implementation framework of Futures Studies]. Future Stud Management. 2015;26(102):15-26. Persian.
21. Kuosa T. Towards the Dynamic Paradigm of Futures Research: How to Grasp a Complex Futures Problem with Multiple Phases and Multiple methods. 2009. [Updated:01/01]. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228727621_Towards_the_Dynamic_Paradigm_of_Futures_Research_How_to_
Grasp_a_Complex_Futures_Problem_with_Multiple_Phases_and_Multiple_methods.
22. Cuhls K. From forecasting to foresight processes—new participative foresight activities in Germany. J Forecasting. 2003;22(2-3):93-111. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.848.
23. Tariq S, Woodman J. Using mixed methods in health research. JRSM Short Rep. 2013;4(6):2042533313479197. [PubMed ID:23885291]. [PubMed Central ID:PMC3697857]. https://doi.org/10.1177/2042533313479197.
24. Popper R. Foresight Methodology. In: Georghiou L, editor. The Handbook of Technology Foresight. London, England: Edward Elgar; 2008. p. 44-88.
25. Gordon TJ, Glenn JC. Integration, comparisons, and frontiers of futures research methods. In: Gordon TJ, Glenn JC, editors. EU-US Seminar: New Technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods. 2004.
26. Georghiou L. The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice. London, England: Edward Elgar; 2009.
27. Bell W. “What do we mean by futures studies?”. In: Slaughter R, editor. The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies. Washington, DC, USA: Washington, DC, USA; 1996. p. 3-25.
28. Tavallaei R. [Futures study of Iran’s cyberspace services trends in the technological process of globalization, using delphi method]. Globalization Strategic Studies Quarterly. 2015;17. Persian.
29. Voros J. A generic foresight process framework. Foresight. 2003;5(3):10-21. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680310698379.
30. Dator J. What Futures Studies Is, and Is Not. In: Dator J, editor. Jim Dator: A Noticer in Time: Selected work, 1967-2018. Cham: SpringerInternational Publishing; 2019. p. 3-5.
31. Niiniluoto I. Futures studies: science or art? Futures. 2001;33(5):371-7. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0016-3287(00)00080 x.
32. Eivazi MR, Pedram A. [Purposes and Assumptions of Islamic Futures Studies]. Journal of Improvement Management. 2014;8(1):27-48. Persian.
33. Dator JIM. Introduction: The future lies behind! Thirty years of teaching futures studies. American Behavioral Scientist. 1998;42(3):298-319. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764298042003002.
34. Cork S, Alexandra C, Alvarez-Romero JG, Bennett EM, BerbésBlázquez M, Bohensky E, et al. Exploring Alternative Futures in the Anthropocene. Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 2023;48(1):25-54. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-112321-095011.
35. van Dorsser C, Walker WE, Taneja P, Marchau VAWJ. Improving the link between the futures field and policymaking. Futures. 2018;104:75-84. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.05.004.
36. Inayatullah S. Questioning the future: Methods and tools for organizational and societal transformation. 2005. Available from: https://www.metafuture.org/library1/FuturesStudies/The-Studyof-the-Future-questioning_the_future_ch_1-2007.pdf.
37. Bell W. Foundations of Futures Studies, Volume 1: Human Science for a New Era. London, England: Routledge; 2009.
38. Hajiani E. [The Criteria of Methodological Evaluation Of Future Studies Techniques]. Rahbord J. 2011;20(59). Persian.
39. Lempert R, Bankes S, Popper S. Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis. Santa Monica, CA: RAND; 2003.
40. Parson EA, Burkett V, Fisher-Vanden K, Keith D, Mearns L, Pitcher H, et al. Global-change scenarios: their development and use. Washington, D.C, U.S; 2007 Contract No.: Document Number|.
41. Hosseini M, Talebpur J, Bakeri A. [Model in the development of managers ‘ competence with a futuristic approach in educational organizations]. New Dev Psychol Educ Sci Educ. 2019;15(2):1-16. Persian.
42. Cuhls K. Foresight with Delphi Surveys in Japan. Technol
Analysis Strategic Management. 2001;13(4):555-69. https://doi.org/10.1080/09537320127287.
43. Dator J. Futures studies as applied knowledge. In: Slaughter RA, editor. New Thinking for a New Millennium. Washington, DC, USA: Association of Professional Futurists; 2002. p. 119-29.
44. Kousari S, Sadat Rahmati F. [Future-Oriented Researches and Its Roles in STI Policy Making]. J Sci Technol Policy. 2019;12(2):103-18. Persian.
45. Inayatullah S. The Futures Triangle: Origins and Iterations. World Futures Rev. 2023;15(2-4):112-21. https://doi.org/10.1177/19467567231203162.
46. Abdullah NA. The Use and Usefulness of The Futures Triangle. World Futures Rev. 2023;15(2-4):133-45. https://doi.org/10.1177/19467567231203167.
47. Cruz S, Moura NA, Lim JM, Bulatao MNA, Aguirre GA, Dela Paz J. From Insight to Foresight: The Transformative Potential of the Futures Triangle. World Futures Rev. 2023;15(2-4):156-69. https://doi.org/10.1177/19467567231215126.
48. Inayatullah S. Six pillars: futures thinking for transforming. Foresight. 2008;10(1):4-21. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680810855991.
49. Fergnani A. Futures Triangle 2.0: integrating the Futures Triangle with Scenario Planning. Foresight. 2020;22(2):178-88.
50. Hyman MR, Kostyk A. Guest editorial: A prospectus on marketing futurology. Europ J Marketing. 2019;53(8):1485-503.
51. Slaughter RA. The knowledge base of futures studies as an evolving process. Futures. 1996;28(9):799-812. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0016-3287(96)00043-2.
52. Wendell B. Foundations of futures studies: History, purposes, and knowledge. Piscataway, New Jersey: Transaction Publishers; 2003.
53. Slaughter R, Inayatullah S, Ramos J. The knowledge base of futures studies: Professional edition. Foresight Int. 2005;1.
54. Miles ID, Keenan MP. Practical guide to regional foresight in the United Kingdom. Brussels, Belgium: European Commission; 2002.
55. Ghorrabi AT, Heydari M, Choobdarnezhad M, Dahim A, Heydarifard Z. Evaluation of the Overall Quality of the Health Technology Assessment Educational Program from the Perspectives of University Professors and Learners in Iran. Health Technol Assessment Action. 2023;7(1). https://doi.org/10.18502/htaa.v7i1.13301.
56. Slaughter RA. A new framework for environmental scanning. Foresight. 1999;1(5):441-51. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636689910802331.
57. Mahdi R. [Futurology in Higher Education: Strategies and Consequences of the Compatible University with Environment and Society (in Persian)]. Management Dev Process Quarterly.
2015;28(1):31-54. Persian.
58. Martin BR. The origins of the concept of ‘foresight’ in science and technology: An insider’s perspective. Technol Forecasting Soc Change. 2010;77(9):1438-47. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.009.
59. Miles I, Keenan M. Practical Guide to Regional Foresight in the UK. luxembourg: European Communities; 2003.
60. Garvin DA, Levesque LC. Note on scenario planning. China Harvard Business Review Press (China Case Studies); 2005.
61. Ravetz J, Popper R, Miles I. Applications of Wild Cards and Weak Signals to the Grand Challenges & Thematic Priorities of the European Research Area (ERA Toolkit). Manchester, United Kingdom: Manchester Institute of Innovat ion Research, The University of Manchester; 2011.
62. Mehrabanfar E. Wild Cards Applications in Futures Studies. Int J Mod Management Foresight. 2014;1:255-63.
63. Glaros A, Marquis S, Major C, Quarshie P, Ashton L, Green AG, et al. Horizon scanning and review of the impact of five food and food production models for the global food system in 2050. Trends Food Sci Technol. 2022;119:550-64. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tifs.2021.11.013.
64. Chermack TJ. Scenario Planning in Organizations: How to Create, Use, and Assess Scenarios. Oakland, United States: Berrett-Koehler Publishers; 2011.
65. Kahn H, Wiener AJ. The next thirty-three years: A framework for speculation. Cambridgeshire, England: Daedalus; 1967.
66. Godet M. How to be rigorous with scenario planning. Foresight. 2000;2(1):5-9. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680010802438.
67. Hiltunen E. Scenarios: process and outcome. J Futures Stud. 2009;13(3):151-2.
68. Paya A, Baradaran Shoraka H-R. Futures Studies in Iran: Learning through trial and error. Futures. 2010;42(5):484-95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.033.
| Files | ||
| Issue | Vol 8 No 4 (2024) | |
| Section | Review Article | |
| Keywords | ||
| Futures Studies Futures Uncertainty Futures Research Futurism Futurology | ||
| Rights and permissions | |
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
How to Cite
1.
Heydari Fard Z, Maleki MR, Pourasghari H. Principle Concepts in Futures Studies: A Narrative Review. Health Tech Ass Act. 2024;8(4).
